GES Summit PAWA254 discussion

My summary of ydays discussion. Posting here

Went for a discussion yesterday on what the Global Entrepreneurship Summit (GES) meant for Kenya. On one hand people who attended it thought 1) It helped entrepreneurs form connections with other entrepreneurs, VC firms, role models. I must add here, that most of the delegates were from developing countries 2) The panels and discussions were Africa focused, there were sessions on agriculture etc., that were extremely helpful.

Obama and Kenyatta convened the Summit. Kenya succumbed to a bad bout of Obamamania. Because of this the media did not focus on the Summit- and the panels etc, but chose to provide the public with minute details of Obama's Airforce 1. Thus not many people know what happened at the Summit. There was thus a claim that the Summit did not benefit the ordinary person.

This was followed up by the claim that people who were selected to attend the Summit had a previous connection with the US Embassy. This was not true in my case- however I do realize that credentials such as 'Rhodes Scholar' tends to open up doors. However, given that I met small scale farmers from Sudan, Tunisia- people who couldn't possibly have such connections, I reject this argument.

The discussion then went down the following path which I thought was extremely interesting. It went as follows. The US, and surrogates of the US such as the World Bank, IMF, have provided Africa with loans, while turning the screws on African countries, forcing them to privatize- this has had woeful consequences- such as lack of public transport etc. It was argued that GES was just another insidious way for the US to peddle its mandate of 'capitalism' on poor countries. It was said that GES created the perception among the public that business had to circumvent and provide for the public, what the government would not do. This is harmful.

Now, I have a problem with this. Everything the white man does today can be construed in this light (and it usually is true). However, is this really the perception of people on the ground? Or are we saying it is, in order for it to fit the above theory. I admit, I'm biased because I attended the Summit and found it to be helpful. The narrative during the Summit was very clearly that governments need to step up. However, thanks to the poor media coverage, this obviously did not go through.

A second point raised during the debate was that Obama pledged 1billion USD for 'youth and women'. However, studies have shown that for ever $ given in foreign aid to Kenya, Kenya loses $10 in tax evasion by multinational corporations who are signed on. A third point raised, was that the GES would lead to brain drain, as entrepreneurs would be enticed to go abroad to the US to become big. Personally, I dont think point 3) is a strong point.

Now, does this mean that 1) It would be better if the money hadn't been given? 2) Kenya needs to negotiate the terms of such grants, but does Kenya have the clout to negotiate these terms given the unequal relationship with the US? I am unclear.

So has the GES created more harm than good? Has it furthered the 'selfish' ambition of a few entrepreneurs at the expense of an entire nation? I leave you to draw your conclusion

Food Sovereignty vs Food Security PAWA 254 discussion

My takeaway from the food security versus sovereignty debate

Just back from an incredible debate on 'Is food security coming at the expense of food sovereignty'!

At the outset there were issues raised about the inadequate long term testing of GMOs, the fact that the herbicide/pesticide use has increased with the advent of GMOs- and how this is detrimental to the land/ these chemicals themselves contain carcinogenic substances. However, it was also pointed out that climate change- leading to conditions such as droughts have also necessitated the need for traditional agriculture to be altered. This brought us to the point of food scarcity.

The dominant narrative today- bolstered by companies such as Monsanto is that GMOs are necessary to tackle the food shortage. However, it was pointed out, that this could be solved by better storage/the removal of middle men who hike up prices, and adequate consideration needed to be afforded to these issues.

It was acknowledged however, that we already rely on plenty of GMOs. there was no debating the fact that the real cause of worry was how these seeds were in the hands of a few companies only. 70% of farmers in Africa are small scale farmers- who will suffer if monocultures become the norm. These farmers are also unable to pay the high price for GMO seed. Compound this with fact that companies like Monsanto forbid the reuse of their seeds (in order to make a profit- they claim). The laws seem to protect the big companies as opposed to small holders.

Corrupt politicians will have no scruples in signing agreements with corporations (who by US law have the same right as persons and can thus negotiate such agreements with States- lawyers please back me up here) and allow the corporations to basically loot their countries. Someone in the debate mentioned the need for bilateral treaties to ensure that corporations met certain conditions in order to enter a country.

Note that the fact that chains such as McDonalds require one species of apples for example, is leading to the demise of several strains of apple as farmers now are forced to grow the strain that McDonalds wants. This is also leading to a dearth in biodiversity.

Compound this with the fact that food has political, personal and cultural meanings, and it is clear that capitalism has set the rules in the favour of size!
What can WE do, was then discussed. Should we boycott chains like McDonalds? Many of those present at the debate already do. However, at some level even 'boycotting' something reflects our privilege- that we are able to do so, while so many do not have this choice as they cannot even AFFORD to go to McDonalds in the first place.
How do we change the narrative- and go for more African friendly ways of ensuring food security and sovereignty? This we still have to discuss.

Energy Situation in Kenya: Discussion at iHub

Is catching the tail end of a discussion on energy in Kenya at iHub. Apparently currently to sell your surplus solar energy back to the grid, you have to sign a Power Purchase Agreement with Kenya Power Limited which is next to impossible to obtain. Hope is in the upcoming 2025 Kenya Energy Bill which has laws around net metering.
{Note Germanys net metering system charges users x for power and pays them 2x for the power they generate. Kenya has 19 times less solar power installed than Germanys 38 GW. Why is that? Awareness- people think of solar only in terms of lanterns and mobile charges not solar on a large scale. The cost of money is high here. Plus there has to big capacity building. It is interesting to see that the government is proposing nuclear power to close the gap but not focusing enough on solar (I have to check this out).}

Note this is all fairly new as a monopoloy existed before ( i dont know what the case is now. I thought it was still a monopoly) and one could only sell energy to the grid if ones system was greater than 40kW. Interestingly it was a UNDP project in the 90's that helped changed policy. UNDP tied up with another power supplier to build an 18kW hydroelectric scheme that powered a small shopping center. The result of this project was partly instrumental in shaping policy.

Another instance of policy following a project, is when the Spanish government gifted Kenya a 3.5 MW wind turbine on the top of Ngong hill. The project produced the energy it was guaranteed to produce in 1.5 years, instead of the said 2 years. This made the government interested in independent projects such as this. However, most project managers need the government to sign a 'sovereignty' clause: which states that in the event of a civil war/terrorist attack of the project, the government will reimburse the constructors. The government has been shying away from doing this. Without this, banks refuse to provide loans, and projects cannot be developed.

UNEP is currently pushing for a FiT for solar. UNEP produces more solar energy than it needs. It is now putting excess energy into the grid for free. It is pushing for the government to implement FiTs. In the new Energy Bill, this will range form 8.5cents/kWh to 20 cents/kWh (for decentralized renewables). Note the Mumias Sugar Industry actually had a geothermal(?) renewable project up and running which the government gave 6 cents/kWh. Under this new act the government is supposed to give them 12 cents/kWh. Mumias asked for this price. Instead the government slapped them with a 2 million KSh bill, for failing to comply with contractual terms. It refused to pay Mumias the 12 cents/kWh, and Mumias boycotted their original contract and is not providing the government with any energy.

For solar water heating, there is an Energy Efficiency act that requires companies to conduct energy audits.

There is a push that in the new building code there will be mandatory water harvesting and design buildings according to local microclimate as well as use local materials. The current building code doesnt all anything apart from stone. This is because the colonial master buidling codes were used.

Update on electric 2 and 2 wheelers project

The objective of my project is to set up a pilot electric 2 and 3 wheeler (E2/3W) in Kenya and Uganda.

Now this is no small thing! In order to implement a pilot, one must have to be aware of:

a) Is this the right project for these countries? What does 'right' mean? Does the overall good outweigh the overall harm? Will this project make EVERYONE better off? I'm not sure what the right definition of 'right' is- How do I decide?

Well who am I with respect to this project? I am an international organization- my WHAT is decided 'democratically' in a large General Assembly. However, my HOW is decided by funding sources. This leaves me perplexed as I then seem to be bound by my funding agency who may/may not have the same ideological definition of 'right' as implied in my mandate. I need to clarify this with more experienced people who understand this.

b) If I assume my definition of 'right' is ensuring an overall positive, what policies/business plans do I recommend for this pilot project to take off? Who are my stakeholders and how much control do I have over them to ensure that they stick closely to recommendations?

Well I've descended into a tangle alright!

I'm going to forget about the fact that I'm a cog in a large organization, with a predetermined mandate- and try and think through point 1) without consulting the higher-ups. But before I can tell you what I think, I will give you a taste of the research that I have done that has informed my results. This will allow you to judge whether I have been biased by reading too much literature by a certain scholar/university/region.

Here goes.

The NGO, Sustainable Transport Africa, states that Africa has the highest potential for 2/3W growth, as compared to any other region for the following reasons:

1) Empirical evidence indicates that regions where the GDP per capita is US $1,000 have a high growth potential for two and three wheelers. This is probably because at this economic level, 2/3W become affordable. This is the case with Kenya and Uganda now.
2) The current penetration rates of 2/3W in Africa are very low (about 5%)
3) Growing urbanization (questionable as the Government of Kenya has supported 2 W as they can reach rural areas where there are no paved roads etc), favourable demographics (what does this mean? Does this mean that 2/3W are actively preferred by a particular demographic? If so what?), and swelling replacement demand

Given this demand potential it is worth encouraging people to take up E2/3W as opposed to conventional internal combustion powered vehicles (ICE).

What are E2/3Ws? It is interesting that when this is spoken about in countries such as the UK- a lot of people think of the small electric vehicles that people with disabilities use. I am not sure where these vehicles fit into the debate. However, I will give you the definitions that I have read about.

By appearance, e-bicycles have pedals as traditional bicycles do, and have 2 types:
1) Pedal-assisted (or pedelec), which has a torque sensor that engages the motor without the driver operating a throttle.
2) Throttle-controlled (or twist-and-go), which permits a driver to accelerate without having to pedal

E-bikes could also be defined on the basis of top speeds that their design allows them to reach. Different countries have different regulations. Among all regions, China sets the lowest top-speed (equal or less than 20 kilometers per hour) and weight limit (max weight being 40kg); While in North America, an e-bicycle can drive as fast as 32 kilometers per hour.

E-bicycles belong to non-motorized vehicles in China. Note that e-bicycles are different from e-scooters and e-motorcycles, both of which belong to motorized vehicles and are regulated.

Why encourage people to switch to E2/3W from ICE vehicles?

Environmental factors.

Electric motors are more energy efficient- such a switch would greatly reduce air pollution as well as GHG emissions. It is wrong to say E2/3W are zero emission vehicles (ZEV). Generating electricity to power these vehicles leads to CO2 being emitted. The GHG emissions of E2/3W are primarily determined by the energy mix from which they are charged. This energy mix may vary spatially and over time. In addition, transmission and distribution losses must be factored into calculations.

Note: An E2/3W could be a ZEV if it is powered by renewables (Note energy is still required to manufacture the car, so by ZEV- I only mean its ZEV during the time of operation).

A downside of E2/3Ws however, the problem of lead pollution. Lead acid batteries are still the dominant battery technology adopted by 95% of E2/3Ws.

The large scale production and recycling of lead acid batteries in China is a major public health concern. Frequent accidents of lead poisoning forced Chinese government to launch a nationwide crackdown of sealed lead acid (SLA) manufacturing facilities in 2011. Currently, in spite of explicit regulations on SLA battery disposal and recycling, illegal recycling and disposing of SLA batteries widely exist in China. In August, 2011, there was only one qualified company in Beijing for SLA battery recycling and disposal.

Given the short life circle of SLA batteries, one or two years’ use before replacement, together with SLA battery’s vast application in E2Ws, an estimate of 30,000 ~ 50,000 ton SLA batteries need to be recycled and processed in Beijing every year. This is way beyond the capacity of the qualified company, and hence it is estimated that 80% of recyclable SLA batteries in China went to illegal channels. This is an issue of major concern.

Nevertheless E2/3Ws have clear environmental advantages as compared with competing motorized modes. Even compared to a loaded bus, E2/3Ws emit less CO2, CO and NOx. However, if powered from a coal heavy energy mix such as in China, they emit more PM, SO2 and HC than buses, but are still better than conventional motorcycles


Now that we have established from an environmental standpoint that E2/3Ws are better than conventional 2Ws, how do we get people to shift from ICEs to E2/3Ws?

The World Bank did a survey to understand why E2/3Ws had not taken off in India and Thailand and came up with the following list of axes that informed demand.

1) Purchase price: price of vehicle not including registration tax, sales tax, or VAT
2) Refuel or recharge range: the number of kms that can be traveled on a full tank of gas or a full charge before needing to refuel or recharge
3) Refuel or recharge time: the amount of time in minutes required to fill an empty gas tank or to recharge a battery from zero charge to full charge
4) Fuel or electricity cost: operating cost stated in terms of Vietnamese dong/100 km, and Rs/km in India
5) Maintenance cost: routine costs of maintenance such as battery replacement (D/month) or (Rs/15,000 km)
6) Acceleration: Measured relative to a standard motorcycle as a %, where the acceleration of the std motorcycle is 0-40 km in 10 s in Vietnam. (in Ahemdabad it is expressed as time to reach 30 km/h)
7) Top speed
8) License requirements
9) Sales and registration tax: combined sales and registration tax (independent of purchase price) expressed in millions of dong, and owned upon purchase (in Ahemdabad it is the VAT expressed in Rs)
10) Transmission: manual or automatic transmission
11) Carrying capacity

At the moment E2/3Ws have a much lower top speed/acceleration than conventional bikes. They also have a long charging time, and are more expensive. For these reasons, they haven't been popular in India and Thailand. Note that this result has to be dis-aggregated further. In India, for example, men prioritized acceleration/speed far more than women did.

Also, factors such as the weather was found to be significant in deciding if people used E2/3Ws on a particular day. This has important implications for the planning of public transport systems on days of bad weather.

Note the assumption here is that E2/3Ws will be a substitute for conventional motorcycles. However, in some cities in China, where E2/3Ws are very popular it was seen that in some cases E2/3Ws acted as a substitute for public transport. This is not desirable. I'm still not sure about what could be done to ensure that this does not happen. However, the above list could be useful in understanding transport choices.

Okay, this is a mess. Let's look at a China- a place where E2/3Ws have seen exponential growth in the last few years to see how this has happened.

The rise of electric two-wheelers in China has been fueled by two notable policies from the central government:

1) In 1999, the government designated certain electric two-wheelers as bicycles. To be considered a bicycle, an electric two-wheeler was required to have a bicycle-design with functioning pedals, weight less than 40 kg, and have a maximum speed of 20 kmph. However, according to China’s Law on Road Traffic Safety (2004), e-bicycles in China belong to non-motorized vehicles, and the top speed limit for non-motorized lanes is 15 kmph. This classification meant, among other things that qualifying electric two-wheelers could travel in the bicycle-right-of-way that they did not require licensing and registration and the users did not need a driver’s license. This made motorized travel available to people who would otherwise have been unable to use it.

2) Many cities severely restricted the ownership and use of gasoline motorcycles in their urban cores. In a country with crowded roads and restrictions on gasoline motorcycles, it is perhaps not surprising that a low-cost vehicle that ran on electricity and could travel in bicycle rights-of-way became popular.

Note that countries like Taiwan which has spent NT$1.8 billion to subsidize electric scooters has not managed to achieve the same uptake of scooters as China has. This is because it did not restrict the use of gasoline scooters. In addition, initial glitches in the new e-bike technology resulted in consumers losing faith in the technology.

There were additional factors that contributed to the rise of E2Ws in China.

During the 1980s and 1990s, China began using its pool of surplus labour to build cycle lanes parallel to roads throughout its cities. Today all cities, even tier 4 and tier 6 towns have segregated bicycle lanes.

China invested heavily in programs to develop technology for alternative vehicles such as '863' which focused on the development of fuel cells.

Over the next decade, a slew of subsidies and policy measures - subsidized land and monetary grants - propped up the industry. Consumers got cash incentives. The subsidy was hiked repeatedly when new and powerful models were introduced and was upgraded last year to a maximum of 3,000 yuan for a 1,000-watt two-wheeler costing up to 10,000 yuan.

These policies have led to China accounting for 92% of the E2W market in 2012. According to the chairman of China Bicycle Association, there are currently 142 million e-bicycles in China today.

However, this rapid expansion has come at a cost. Regulations are lax and many so called 'e-bikes' routinely violate the speed limit, which has led to a surge in road accidents. In addition, Chinese law does not require bicycle riders to wear helmets/use lights/horn. This too, has contributed to a number of road accidents. E-bikes thus run of the risk of being banned in as many as 9 major Chinese cities. Thus, any pilot program introducing these vehicles, must have road safety at the core of its agenda.

Thus the above has given us a tantalizing glimpse of what it takes to get E2/3Ws on the market. The next section shall structure policy recommendations under 4 main categories

1) Charging Infrastructure
2) Fiscal Incentives
3) Technology Support
4) Non-fiscal Incentives

1) Supporting Charging Infrastructure:

For electric vehicles (not 2 wheelers)charging infrastructure has bee seen to be very strongly correlated with EV adoption. However, the support of such charging infrastructure is necessarily a 'chicken and egg' problem, especially given the fact that the government has to make a choice between a vast number of 'alternative vehicle' technologies.

The Kenyan electrification rate is only 23% (50% in urban areas and 5% in rural areas). Therefore the development of charging stations is a point of concern. The development of decentralized charging stations could be one way around the issue.

If we consider an e-bike having the following specifications:
power is less than 500 W
lightweight - less than 60 kg
max speed is less than 40 kmph

The average solar radiation in Nairobi is 1200 kWh/sq m
Therefore the area of a 15% solar cell required to power the batter is

1200 kWh/sq m x 15% x Area = 500 W x 3600 seconds/hour
Area required = 1.67 sq m

This is of course assuming that the solar panel alone is powering the battery. The cost alone of this will be very high and will have to be subsidized by the government.

High battery costs could make the battery swapping model a viable alternative. However, this would require compatibility between models of EVs and their battery systems and would require technology standards to be developed.

The same standardization requirements go for conventional charging infrastructure.

2) Financial Incentives

BCG 2009 has noted that consumers are most heavily swayed by purchasing price when making consumer decisions. E2/3Ws are more expensive than conventional alternatives (note the alternatives/the real substitutes of E2/3Ws has to be carefull identified- what are E2/3Ws competing with? Motorcycles of the same specifications?

There are 2 types of financial incentives

a) Incentives for consumers: eg tax credits, tax reduction, tax exemption, direct subsidy, free road tax, cheap electricity prices, free parking.
b) Incentives for manufacturers: eg reduction of sales tax depending on CO2 emission level, subsidies for the production of EVs

I compiled a list of the financial incentives given in the US. Europe and China. I will summarize some of the interesting categories here

The US has a 'Car Allowance Rebate System'- known as 'Cash for Clunkers' which allows people to exchange their less fuel efficient vehicle for a more efficient one.

The US ‘Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007’ not only provided financial incentives, but also provided low loan for automobile manufacturers to develop EVs. President Obama also announced the plan of the ‘next generation electric vehicle’ which aimed to fund $1.5 billion to manufacturers to produce high efficiency batteries and their components. The plan was also to provide $400 million to produce other components needed for EVs, such as electric motors and other key components

All financial incentives proposed in Europe are mainly based on CO2 emissions, no matter what the incentive object is. European Union (EU) legislation sets mandatory emission targets for new cars, with a fleet average of 130 g·CO2/km by 2015 and 90 g·CO2/km. To achieve this goal, the manufacturers have to pay an excess emissions premium for each car registered. What is more, they could gain “super credits” if they produce vehicles with extremely low emissions. The “super credits” are that each low-emitting car will be counted as 3.5 vehicles in 2012 and 2013, 2.5 in 2014, 1.5 vehicles in 2015 and then one vehicle from 2016 to 2019, but not the money nor subsidy.

In Japan, Ahman (2006) describes how, under the Environment Conservation Programme in 1995, the government announced the replacement of 10% of its public vehicles by 2000 with vehicles producing lower emissions. Since 1978, Japan has promoted several leasing programs and other incentives to encourage the purchase of cleaner electric vehicles.

In China, local protectionism hinders the development of EVs in major cities in which pilot projects have been initiated. The government has invested CNY 100 billion for the development of the whole industrial chain of new energy vehicles. Of this, 30 billion are reserved for demonstration purposes and the diffusion of new energy vehicles.

3) Technology Support

Battery cost is the key factor that will determine whether EVs will become competitive. Given this, several manufacturers have initiated R&D projects in conjunction with battery producers aimed at improving production of this key element.

The International Energy Agency report (2008) recommends that governments provide backing for battery producers, especially the most innovative in the sector. Such support should enable the construction and expansion of battery production plants ensuring that investment requirements are not an obstacle to progress. Access to materials such as lithium in the medium and long term makes it increasingly necessary to develop R&D programs that promote the use of materials and innovative designs that can reduce the production costs of electric vehicles. Production costs can be further reduced if battery producers and electric vehicle manufacturers can operate together.

4) Non fiscal policies

a) A reduction in the time and financial costs of travel. Permission for electric vehicles to use the High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes and a differentiation in the tolls charged according to levels of contamination would help achieve these objectives. In 2009, London’s mayor proposed reviewing the possibility that electric vehicles might use the HOV lanes, as introduced in the city of Oslo (Norway).

b) Establishment of “Park & Ride” sites at interchanges. Such car parking facilities, sited in city outskirts, would allow owners of electric vehicles to leave their cars charging while they are at work.

c) Agreements with private companies to install charging stations in firms’ car parks.

d) Financial support from the Institut Català d'Energia for the implementation of pilot programs that improve the energy efficiency of companies’ transport systems. These companies receive up to 60% of the investment, provided they demonstrate an increase in energy efficiency of at least 5% in the displacement of workers from their homes to the workplace. Here, electric vehicles offer a competitive advantage in attaining this saving.

e)An information system designed for electric vehicle owners that allows them to quickly identify the nearest charging points. The introduction of clear, visible and uniform signs to help identify the recharge points is also useful in reducing the “anxiety” of the owners of electric vehicles.

Thus, to conclude, in order to establish a pilot in Kenya and Uganda, further research needs to be done on the factors that influence citizen's transport decisions- this has to disaggregated in order to understand the preferences of women.

The right policies then have to be espoused within the four policy categories mentioned above, within the context of the pilot countries. For example, in Kenya and Uganda, 2 wheelers are currently mainly used for public transport (boda bodas). Thus a policy, that first focuses on targeting the boda boda union to incentivize them to switch to E2/3Ws might be the best first step.

Finally, charging infrastructure, a road safety campaign and lead acid battery recycling needs to be addressed from the outset and the required capacity building needs to be initiated

Post script:
My organization's mandate is the following:
1) Promoting international cooperation in the field of the environment and recommending appropriate policies
2) Monitoring the status of the global environment and gathering and disseminating environmental information
3) Catalyzing environmental awareness and action to address major environmental threats among governments, the private sector and civil society.
4) Facilitating the coordination of UN activities on matters concerned with the environment, and ensuring, through cooperation, liaison and participation, that their activities take environmental considerations into account
5) Developing regional programmes for environmental sustainability.
6) Helping, upon request, environment ministries and other environmental authorities, in particular in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, to formulate and implement environmental policies
7) Providing country-level environmental capacity building and technology support
8) Helping to develop international environmental law, and providing expert advice on the development and use of environmental concepts and instruments.

Within this, my Division has the following mandate:
UNEP’s Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) works with international and non-governmental organizations, national and local governments, business and industry to develop and implement policies, strategies and practices that are cleaner and safer, incorporate environmental costs, use natural resources efficiently, reduce pollution and risks for humans and the environment, and
enable the implementation of conventions and international agreements.

The division promotes sustainable consumption and production patterns and energy and transport policies for sustainable development, and encourages investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The OzonAction branch supports the phase out of ozone-depleting
substances in developing countries and countries with economies in transition, while the Chemicals branch catalyzes global actions and builds national capacity for the sound management of chemicals and the improvement of chemical safety worldwide.

DTIE’s Economics and Trade branch strengthens the ability of countries to integrate environmental considerations into economic and trade policies and promotes the greening of the finance sector, while the International Environmental Technology Centre, based in Japan, implements integrated waste, water and disaster management programmes,focusing in particular on Asia.

Comparison of different types of vehicles

My internship project involves looking at the best way of introducing 2 and 3 wheeler electric vehicles (EVs) in developing countries.

However, at the outset I felt I needed to do more work on why EVs were being pushed over, say CNG vehicles, more efficient IC engine vehicles. The following post thus looks at different types of vehicles and their relative pros and cons.

1) Diesel versus Petrol vehicles. Note that countries like India have subsidized the cost of diesel, leading to a forced substitution of petrol vehicles with diesel vehicles (there is a Rs 30 difference between the two). In the US, however, petrol and diesel cost roughly the same. In 2007, petrol costed $3/gallon, while diesel cost $3.39/gallon.

Is this shift from petrol to diesel good? The following table compares petrol and diesel.

The carbon dioxide emissions for petrol are higher. It emits 13% more CO2/gallon of fuel burnt. However, note that diesel is 1.5x more efficient than petrol. This is because diesel engines can operate at higher compression ratios than petrol, and there is no risk of auto-ignition.

In the past, diesel engines were considered noisy (the sound emitted in the exhaust blow down in diesel engines is louder than petrol engines as they operate at higher pressures) and dirty, and therefore they were not used, in spite of the fact that diesel is more efficient than petrol. In order to produce cleaner, quieter diesel cars, they were fitted with a trap to catch particles of smoke in the exhaust. However, these traps in many places, were seen to not work properly unless the vehicle was hot, and many drivers removed them.

Diesel produces more NOx than petrol engines, and more particulates. Catalytic converters could be used to lower NOx concentrations. Unfortunately, many diesel fuels contain S at concentrations that could foul the converters.

New diesel engines have an electronic ignition system that compensates for cold starts and has self cleaning features.

Petrol engines produce more CO (when they are being warmed up)
Petrol engines emit more hydrocarbons (HCs)- containing harmful substances such as benzene

Diesel engines are heavier than gasoline engines of the same power because diesel requires a larger cylinder displacement for complete combustion, and heavier components to withstand higher pressures and temperatures.

For small vehicles, the weight penalty diminished the advantage in fuel from 40% to 20%

Gasoline engines after the 1980s can use mixtures of gasoline and up to 10% ethanol without modification. With modification (fabricating the engine from materials that are resistant to ethanol/methanol corrosion and installing sensors that detect the fuel mixture and allow the electronic ignition control unit to adjust the engine timing)- this can increase.

Converting a gasoline engine to use CNG involves the addition of a pressure regulator and an electronic multi-point gas injection system similar to a gasoline injection system.

Diesel engines are more flexible in their fuel mixtures. Rudolph Diesel ran his vehicle on vegetable oil.

2) 2 stroke versus 4 stroke engines

2 stroke engines are lower cost. They are lighter and are smaller, thanks to their mechanical simplicity. Due to this simplicity, they have greater operating smoothness. However, as compared to 4 stroke engines they are noisier, have lower fuel economies, emit more particulates and HC emissions. This is due to the fact that 15-40% of the unburnt fuel-air mixture escapes through the exhaust valve. Oil is used as a lubricant and is usually mechanically introduced continuously to the fuel/air mixture. The incompletely combusted lubricant and other heavy HCs are emitted as oil droplets and result in increased smoke and increased PM. 2 stroke engines have lower NOx emissions.

Due to the tightening of emission standards there has been a shift from 2 stroke engines to 4 stroke engines. However, the exact effects of running these 2 engines has not been characterized perfectly and there is still work to be done.

2 stroke gasoline engines and heavy duty diesel vehicles are major contributors of PM10.

However, it is noted that the age of the vehicle is an important determining factor due to rapid improvements in engine technology recently. In the US it was found that 20% of the vehicle fleet was responsible for 80% of all emissions.

3) Biofuels

Biofuels may be in the form of ethanol or biodiesel. While ethanol is made from fermented sugars, biodiesel is made from the oil of certain plants.

Although corn-based ethanol is now the dominant biofuel in the US, criticism over this type of ethanol is increasing. Cellulosic ethanol now promises to play a leading role in the future of biofuels. Ethanol is mainly used as a blending agent with gasoline to increase the octane number and decrease CO and other smog-causing pollution.

Biodiesel can be used as an additive (typically 20%) to reduce vehicle emissions or in its pure form as a renewable alternative for diesel engines. Organizations such as NREL are researching the production of liquid transport fuels using microalgae

Biofuels can be 1st or 2nd generation fuels.
1st generation biofuels are made from sugar, starch, vegetable oil. They differ from 2nd generation biofuels, in that their feedstock is not sustainable or, if used in large quantities, would have a large negative impact on food supply. 1st generation biofuels are the 'original' biofuels and constitute the majority of biofuels currently in use.

2nd generation biofuels are 'greener' in that they are made from sustainable feedstock.

George Monbiot argues in several Guardian pieces in 2012, that biofuels are means by which governments in the rich world avoid hard choices. Rather than raising fuel economy standards, promoting non motorized transport etc, they have chosen to invest heavily in biofuels.

The US and EU set targets and created generous financial incentives for biofuels. In 2012, 40% of US maize production was used to feed cars. Although the market for biodiesel is largely confined to the EU, it has already captured 7% of the world's vegetable oil output. The EU commission has admitted that its target (10% of transport fuels by 2020) would raise world cereal prices by between 3% and 6%. Oxfam estimates with every 1% rise in the price of food, 16 million people go hungry.

By 2021, OECD says that 14% of the world's maize and other coarse grains, 16% of its vegetable oil and 34% of its sugar cane will be used to produce biofuels.

ActionAid has also estimated that European countries have seized 5 m hectares of farmland (an area the size of Denmark) in developing countries for industrial biofuel production.

When the impacts of land clearance, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers are taken into account, biofuels produce more GHG than fossil fuels. 'Burning biomass instead of fossil fuels does not reduce the C emitted by power plants' a group of 78 scientists wrote to the EPA Director against the new power plant policy. 'Burning biomass, such as tree, that would otherwise continue to absorb and store C comes at the expense of reduced C storage.'

However, last year the IPCC stated that riddled with the usual uncertainties of science, being < 2 degrees C would be much harder without biofuels?! Absent a big increase in bioenergy supplies, the climate change panel's analysis reported, it would cost about 2/3rd more, on average, to prevent the earth's temperature from rising more than 2 degrees C. In most models that bring temperatures back under the 2 degrees C ceiling by the end of the century, biofuels are assumed to produce about 250 to 350 exajoules of energy/year. 300 Exajoules is > than half the world's current energy consumption. Today, the energy content of all the biomass harvested for food, fodder and everything else amounts to about 220 Exajoules.

Where will the land to produce these biofuels come from? If the productivity of agriculture and livestock were the same all the world over, as in developed countries, the world could feed 35 million people. In that case, deploying just 10% of the world's 5 billion hectares currently used for crops/pastures could generate 100 to 150 exajoules by the end of the century.

However, other environmentalists such as George Monbiot question the practicality of such calculations.

He states that even second generation biofuels made from crop wastes or wood are an environmental disaster, either extending the cultivated area or removing the straw and stovers which protect the soil from erosion and keep the C and nutrients in the ground.

4) Synthetic fuels: Substituting diesel and jet fuel can be produced from different feedstock converting biomass to liquid (BTL), coal to liquid (CTL) or gas to liquid (GTL). Hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) of a similar paraffinic nature, can be produced by hydrotreating plant oils and animal fats. Synthetic fuels can be distributed, stored and used with existing infrastructure and existing internal combustion engines. They offer a cost-competitive option to replace oil-based fuels with the perspective of further imporved system performance with engines specifically adapted to synthetic fuels. The EU has the development of industrial scale plants for the production of cost-competitive synthetic fuels derived from biomass as a high priority.

EU policy reports state that efforts should be continued to improve the CO2 balance of GTL and particularly CTL. DME is another synthetic fuel produced from fossil or biomass resources via gasification (synthetic gas), requiring moderate engine modifications.

5) EVs versus CNGs

EVs are more efficient than CNG vehicles.
1000 cubic feet of CH4 provides 457 miles in an EV, and only 224 miles in an NGV
NGV have lower efficiencies than hydrogen, hybrid, gasoline, diesel and electric vehicles.

The filling time of an EV (240 V charger) is 3-8 hours. Building an electric charging station costs $2000 (including installation costs). DC fast chargers cost around $50,000. CNG filling stations costs $750,000, however, the filling time is a few minutes.

The vehicle cost is a tossup.

If one looks at fuel costs, EVs win according to Forbes Magazine

In terms of range, a 4 door CNG taxi with a trunk can hold the equivalent of 15 gallons of fuel and can get close to 300 miles on a tank. EVs get about a 100 miles.

6) LPG is a by product of the hydrocarbon fuel chain. It is currently the most widely used alternative fuel in Europe accounting for 3% of the fuel for cars and powering 5 million vehicles. More than 27,000 filling statons currently exist in Europe

7) Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Electric cars dominated the automobile car market in the second half of the 19th century. However, the low energy density of batteries at that time lost out to the high density, cheap, plentifully available fossil fuel. However breakthroughs in battery technology today has led to a resurgence of talk around EVs.

Electric propulsion of road vehicles occurs in the following configurations
1) Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV): These use a combination of an ICE engine and an electric motor. The battery is charged from braking energy recuperation. The external energy input comes only through the fuel of the IC engine.
2) Plug-in HEV: It uses the same power train as an HEV, but with the additional option of charging the battery also by plugging to the electricity grid.
3) Range-extender Vehicle (REV): It represents another type of HEV with propulsion from an electric motor, and charging of the battery by plug in to the electricity grid or by a petrol fueled ICE. When the battery is depleted, a small ICE working as a generator provides the electricity for propulsion and for sustaining the battery state of charge
4) Hydrogen/Fuel Cell Vehicle (HFCV), with electric propulsion only, and external energy input through refilling an on-board hydrogen tank
5) On-board reformer, where the car is fueled with either bioethanol or biomethanol and the reformer converts the biofuel to hydrogen. This may provide extended operational range
6) Trolleybuses with overhead wires

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are similar to BEVs in terms of having a high efficiency power train. A key difference between both technologies is the upstream GHG emissions associated with the generation and delivery of the energy carrier. Two key aspects that affect the visibility of HFCVs are related with the hydrogen storage and production. Producing hydrogen by hydrolysis is an energy intensive process and requires 3x more energy, and thus emits 3x more GHG than a BEV. However, studies say that the use of HFCVs in a scenario where electricity is obtained from RESs could have advantages over BEVs to achieve a higher autonomy.


Electric motors replacing conventional ICEs can improve the efficiency of light-duty road transport vehicles by a factor of 3. The improvement for heavy-duty vehicles is closer to a factor of 2, compared to a diesel ICE drive train.

However, the energy density of vehicle batteries is much lower than that of gasoline/diesel (even Li ion batteries are an order of 50 lower in energy density). Therefore, even with a factor increase of 5x in efficiency, would still require a 15x larger weight.

Adding a small ICE or fuel cell to the electric drivetrain though, has the potential to overcome the range limitation of pure EVs.

Studies which have looked at the comparative environmental life cycle assessment of conventional and electric vehicles, however, indicate that such a comparison depends heavily on the electricity mix being used by a country. EVs powered by the European mix, offer a 10% to 24% decrease in Global Warming Potential (GWP) relative to conventional diesel or gasoline vehicles assuming a lifetime of 150,000 km (note a vehicle lifetime of 200,000 km, the GWP benefits of EV is 27-29%). However, EVs exhibit the potential for significant increases in human toxicity, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and metal depletion impacts largely emanating from the vehicle supply chain

Another study looked at the lifecycle GHG emissions of EVs for different energy mixes. It was found that this number was 979gCO2 equivalent/kWh for a fossil fuel mix, and 100-300g CO2e/kWh for a mix with more renewables.

Note that this post provides a taster of the difficulty in choosing between different types of cars. Also note that CO2 emissions are not the only environmental axis to make such valuations. Other emissions such as particulates, NOx are equally important considerations

Transport

I have recently started working as part of UNEP's Division of Transport in Nairobi. The Transport Unit has six focus areas

1) To complete the global elimination of leaded petrol (Activities of the Transport Unit also contribute to UNEP's Chemicals and Waste sub-programme where they contribute to reducing health impacts from lead pollution through the global elimination of leaded petrol.)

UNEP has supported more than 80 countries to eliminate leaded petrol world-wide with a result that only 6 countries today continue to use small amounts of leaded petrol. These are Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, North Korea, Algeria, Myanmar

Barriers: Yemen and Iraq lack the financial means to upgrade their refineries
Algeria and Iraq have created stock piles of TEL (the lead additive)
All six countries lack information and capacity to make this change
Some countries have been bribed into buying stockpiles of TEL and have no means to dispose of the same?!?!

2) To develop mainly national and regional activities that will contribute to doubling the efficiency of the global light duty vehicle fleet

Most developed countries have put policies in place that promote fuel economy. For example, taxing inefficient vehicles and providing tax breaks for the efficient vehicles. Introducing vehicle labeling programs. As a result most OECD countries will see the efficiency of their fleets doubling in the coming decade.

However, most developing countries do not have similar measures. To support similar policies the Global Fuel Economy Initiative was put in place in 2008. The target is to double the fuel efficiency of the global light duty fleet from 8 l/100 km in 2005 to 4 l/100 km in 2050.

3) To promote investment in non-motorized transport infrastructure- walking and cycling

UNEP has launched a Share the Road (StR) project that is promoting the systematic inclusion of NMT infrastructure in urban road projects

4) A new clean ports project

Small particulates and black C emissions from ports come from a wide range of sources- directly or indirectly related to port operations- including ocean-going vessels, harbor craft, tug boats, power plants providing energy for port operations etc.

5) A global campaign to reduce small particulate emissions and black carbon emissions through the introduction of cleaner fuels and vehicles

WHO estimates that small PM is responsible for 7 million premature deaths annually. Transport is supposed to contribute 40-80% of PM polluton.

UNEP's Transport Unit plays a central role in the global reduction of emissions of small particulates and black carbon- through the Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (PCFV) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC). In the CCAC initiative- UNEP is one of the 4 co-leads in the Heavy Duty Diesel Initiative- the focus of which is to reduce small particulates and black carbon (BC). BC happens to be the second most important climate pollutant after carbon dioxide.

Note that it is found that developed countries are seeing an unprecedented improvement in the efficiency of their vehicle fleets, resulting in 3% efficiency improvements/year. However, the efficiencies in developing countries is stagnant. In addition, although many developed countries promote low S fuels of < 50 ppm, developing country fuels are still at > 5000 ppm.

Providing the right data in the right format is seen as crucial to developing the right policies. Data is being gathered on the average fuel economy of national fleets in the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) pilot.

6) The development of an African sustainable transport action plan through a new Africa Sustainable Transport Forum

The current Business As Usual (BAU) scenario predicts a tripling of vehicles and a doubling of pollution and climate emissions. The IPCCC 5th Assessment report states that transportation could become one of the largest emitters of GHG emissions (going from 33% of the total from the current 25%), doubling its GHG emissions by 2050.

However, it has also been noted that the reduction potential of emissions in the transport sector has been underestimated. Actions that could promote this include
1) Avoid- Avoid transport by better urban planning
2) Shift- to less pollution and more efficient means of transportation
3) Improve- reduce the emissions of vehicles and other transport modes

UNEA (UN Environmental Assembly) countries adopted an Air Quality Resolution calling on governments to develop standards and policies and asked UNEP to support Governments. UNEP's Transport Unit will play a key role in the implementation of this Resolution.

Sunday mass in Nairobi

M knocked on my door on Saturday night and asked me if I wanted to go to Church with her at 7:30 am the next morning. I'm a 'yes' woman, and true to character assented immediately.

However, when my alarm rang at 6:30 am the next morning, I felt like kicking my yesterday-self, pulling the covers over me and going back to sleep. I probably would have done so- hadn't I thought about what an unpredictable character M was. I knew she went to Bible study classes, and wasn't sure how she'd take me standing her up for Church; So rather than risk M's wrath, I grudgingly got out of bed.

It was cold- something that I found hard to process (I was in Kenya for godsake!!), and so I pretended that it wasn't, and put on a sleeveless dress. M took one look at me, told me I was a 'piece of work' (her favorite expression) and made me put on a jacket. This, I was truly grateful for during our matatu ride to the chapel, especially since for some reason, Kenyans don't see the point of closing the door of their vehicles when driving and gusts of cold air kept whooshing into our van.

We got off at city center, and had to walk some distance to Mamlaka Hill Chapel. We passed the Uni of Nairobi on the way. M had studied there and told me wild stories of her 'youth' (she's 25 now- pssht). According to M, the road just outside the University was a red light area- and some university 1st year girls would prostitute themselves for the sake of the latest pair of Jimmy Choo etc etc. I'm not sure how much of this is true- but M said that before she was packed off to Uni, her mother and aunties prayed for several hours over her to protect her from such happenings, while she tapped her feet impatiently. I could almost see 18 year old rebellious M being prayed over, with a slightly bored expression on her face and giggled.

Mamlaka Hill Chapel looked more like a concert hall than a chapel- In fact it probably was a concert hall. It was a large open air tent. The congregation sat on plastic chairs- neatly marked with the words 'Mamlaka Hill Chapel' facing a stage. The choir consisting of a drummer!, a keyboardist, 8 background singers and one lead singer (a different background singer became the lead for each new song), was already singing on stage. Large screens were set up at different angles- some of which displayed the lyrics of the song, while others showed live footage of what was happening on stage for the benefit of the people at the back. The stage was illuminated with fancy red spotlights.

As we walked in, our bags and persons were systematically scanned, and we were handed in a shiny leaflet of Mamlaka Chapel Hill events in the next months. We had come early, and the few people who were already there were swaying along to the music with no self inhibition. I felt awkward for a minute as I'm not really the swaying sort- but the music was SO good, that after a few minutes, the beat in my feet had crept up my body, and I found myself swinging my hips!

The hymn was completely new to me. The lyrics were religious, however the music itself was upbeat- none of the soft subdued music I was used to. I remembered that back in Mumbai- the priests made a big deal of ensuring that the 'communion music' was just instrumental in order to allow it to form a backdrop for people's prayers. Here, the music was everything.

We danced to about 3 songs- with different singers doing the main harmony for each. The preacher then came on stage and started on long list of petitions about world peace etc, to which the congregation, still under the influence of the music, 'amen'ed devoutly. He ended his list with gratitude for the Kenyan Music Project having received sponsorship. This got the most vigorous amen, and a couple of whoops in the bargain.

After this, the preacher called for the newbies in the congregation to raise their hands. M hissed at me, and tried to put my hand in the air. I had no wish to be asked to sing (or worse dance!) in front of the entire audience, and resisted all her efforts. One brave man, however did put up his hand and got a long hand of applause. The preacher then instructed him to find the intern(!) at the end of the service, who would escort him to the visitor's lounge to meet the pastors over refreshments.

The preacher then said it was time for announcements. I settled back in my seat expecting the usual announcements about womens teas, bible study, Sunday school, when all of a sudden the lights went dim, and suddenly all the screens started playing a video. I had a surreal feeling that I was back in an MBA class.

A deep western voice began the video talking about the '3S's' in the Mamlanka Chapel Hill mission statement. (Don't ask me what they were. I was too stunned to note them down. Though now I wish I had!) It then went on to talk about the various 'Ministries' and what they did- there was the Ministry of Care and Connection, Leadership and Development- and my favorite- REAL Groups ( I can't be the only one thinking of the Ministry of Silly Walks here! Come on and back me up!). Note that the video had stunning animations and was very Larger then life! It ended with an advisement to all members of the audience to take care of their belongings and a reminder that if they had any problems they could contact Mamlaka Hill Chapel's Security team! (see Concert Hall!)

At the end of it I was gasping for breath and kicking myself for not having filmed it/taken photographs! I felt that all the consultants I knew could have taken notes from the presentation!

The next bit of the service involved the preacher bringing the leaders of some of the REAL groups on stage and asked them each to speak about their experience in leading a REAL group. There was a woman lawyer named Purity, a Dutch lady who said she had initially come to Kenya as part of a Christian mission group and then left the mission to start her own waste water treatment business, a lady who said she managed the East African business of a fashion company, and two business men.

The fashion lady started off by talking about how she had been initially asked to lead a group by the pastor and how it took her ages to come to terms and 'deal with herself' before she allowed herself to be convinced to lead the group. She was very dramatic as she painted a picture of her old bed sitter in which she used to host her group and how she learned to 'deal with herself'.

The Kenyan preacher got off on the wrong foot when he looked at the Dutch lady's fair skin and said, 'you're clearly not from Kenya, but do you want to share your story with us?' It troubles me that we give westerners(This term in itself is problematic as I was reminded today when a Kenyan reminded me that he was a 'westerner' in China)/white people for not truly accepting people who do not look/talk/behave like them, when we are far more tolerant with similar exhibitions of behavior in our countries. Yesterday, I met a German girl who studies informal schools in Kibeira. She spoke about how she was termed as '' (find out)- which basically was the word used to describe the British colonialists in Kenya- and which has negative connotations.

The preacher then turned on the business men, and basically said in a cloying manner, that they traveled so much, worked 16 hours a day and yet found time to lead a REAL group. He said that it was usually the women who joined these groups and made excuses for their husbands. He beseeched the businessmen to tell the congregation how they made the time, and how important it was. The businessmen obliged willingly.

After this, the preacher handed over the mike to a young member of the congregation (a classmate of Ms!) to deliver the sermon (The preachers functioned primarily as the CEO of the chapel delegating work, coordinating ministries etc).

After a well reasoned, impassioned sermon, the choir got us to our feet with one final last hymn- and the service was over.

I felt a vague sense of loss as I walked out with M and met some of her friends. I felt sad that I couldn't accept people at their own valuation. I felt sad that I was a cynical old cat who was laughing up her sleeve during th entire service. I felt bad, bad, bad! But I'm not sorry

Car Accidents

The Young Man looked at the Official in front of him. The Official's face was motionless, except for the rhythmic, rotational movement of his jowls as he chomped on a plate of biscuits. The room was cold- too cold, even though it was summer; thanks to the monster air conditioner that pumped cold air- almost viciously- the Young Man thought, like a great, exposed heart into the room. His tea which had been steaming hot in it's aluminium glass at the beginning of the hour, was now cold and lifeless, and lay at the tip of his elbow- An act of courtesy, a gimmick, a atmosphere setter, a distraction.

Our Young Man was a college graduate. In college, he had spent most of his time debating and talking about philosophy, ethics, politics- the Meaning of Life- with his friends. He believed he had the energy, and the intelligence to change the world - wasn't college preparation to do just that?

Everything needed to be torn down. The world needed to be built afresh. He was convinced of it. Well graduation was over, and it was time to start! But where? He thought through the causes he was passionate about- animal rights, climate change, water scarcity.. And then a family friend at dinner, happened to mention the number of road accidents in India every year. The Young Man was horrified at the figure. After dinner he looked the number up. They were all true. THIS he decided was his Cause. He talked to his parents about it. His proud father connected him with the Official, who he knew through a friend. And that was how he was here. In this room. Sitting opposite the Official.

He had spent the last hour presenting statistic after statistic of the number of road accidents in India to the Official. The Official had remained the same during the entire presentation- still, silent, except for the biscuit chomping. He had remained silent for almost a minute after the end of the presentation. A minute- measured in 4 injuries and 1 nameless, voicless death due to car accidents in India; the chomping of one Parle G biscuit. The Young Man waited.

The Official finally broke the silence.

"Mr YM, you say our Government does not do enough to protect the safety of our people. Let me tell you this. We have a current mandate that all cars have to have front and back seat belts. it is mandatory for front seat belts to be on at all times. How many people do you think obey this law, eh? Do you think we are a rich country like the US to put policemen at every corner to ensure people are wearing seat belts? We do everything we can to hold our officers accountable. But the people need to learn sense!"

He paused.

"Right at this minute we have a new road safety bill being introduced into Cabinet. We will use all that 'smart metering' and whatnot to ensure safe driving. We are also upping our fines and penalties for driving offences. Does that satisfy you? And yes-yes we are starting our new Indian national new car assessment program. Our roads are not like the ones in Switzerland or US, so we don't need to test cars at the same crash speeds."

The Young Man who was listening intently, burst out earnestly. "Shree O. Your government is certainly on the right track to change the law. However, your crash test is not going to come online till 2017. I know that developing such facilities takes time, but what till then? Most of cars manufactured for India- they've failed the basic safety tests. And even, after 2017, what about the cars currently on the road, sir?"

The Young Man paused and surveyed the Official. "And, sir, without offense, amendments to the 1988 Motor Vehicles Act have always been a long time in coming into force. I urge you sir, to raise awareness about safety NOW. Encourage stricter enforcement of the law."

The Official stood up and ushered the Young man to to door. His eyes widened and he said earnestly, "We will do all we can beta. It is truly heartening to see youth like you who care." The door clicked shut on the Young Man's thanks, his petition, and his satisfaction of having 'done something'. It took the Young Man ten minutes- 40 nameless injuries, 10 voiceless deaths to walk home. He was thinking about his next Cause.

In the mean time, the Official's eyes had narrowed again. His earnestness collapsed. He picked up his file and walked out of the door in his new Mercedes.

2015 Union Budget to the Education System of India

Arun Jaitley, India's Finance Minister recently announced the Union's 2015/6 budget on Feb 28th. Jaitley slashed allocation of funds to the primary school sector by 10%. External consultants have reported that the Central Government may be thinking of transferring the responsibility of providing quality elementary education to States.

The mid-day meal scheme (which provides free lunches on working days for children in Primary and Upper Primary Classes in Government, and Government Aided schools) in particular, suffered a drastic fund cut from Rs 1296.5 crore last year, to a mere Rs 132 crore this year. States will be asked to spend a greater portion of their budget to support this scheme.

Research indicates that this could be a 'messy and unpredictable' move as different states have different capabilities. This will result in huge differences in education systems between states. The mid-day meal scheme has been responsible for increasing enrollment rates in schools, especially for girls. It is uncertain what the effect this budgetary reduction will have on future enrollment rates.

The Budget however, saw a shift in focus to higher education, with a planned increase of 22% for funds in this sector. Most of this increase is reported to be channeled towards building new IITs: Indian Institutes of Technologies and IIMs: Indian Institute of Managements, with two new IITs and IIMS already in the pipeline.

There are several reasons why higher education should be a priority of the government. A British Council report on the state of higher education in India in 2014 states that currently over 50% of India's population is under 25 years of age, and will need to be trained to contribute effectively to the economy. The four broadest challenges currently to higher educations in India are:

1) The supply gap: India has an enrollment rate of only 18% compared with 26% in China and 36% in Brazil. By 2020 the Government aims to achieve a 30% gross enrollment rate by creating 40 million new university places
2) Low quality of teaching: India has a shortage of quality faculty. Schools are beset with outdated curricula. There is a lack of accountability in the education system, and a divide between teaching and research. Ensuring quality education is especially important in attracting students to vocational programs. According to this article, 60% of graduates from vocational training programs remain unemployed. This largely because of the poor quality of the programs. It is feared that this statistic will serve to desist future enrollment.
3) Constraints on research capacity and innovation: India has a very low level of PhD enrollment, and does not have enough of high quality researchers. In 2010-11, only 16,000 doctoral degrees were awarded to schools in India- a minuscule number compared to other countries. This has led to a weak ecosystem of innovation.
4) Uneven growth and access to opportunity: Society in India is highly stratified. Access to high quality education is highly dependent on certain socioeconomic characteristics

The root of these challenges lie in structure of the system. The national policy framework dictates that higher education institutions in India are required to have a not-for-profit structure- irrespective of if they are private or public. This has led to a proliferation of private entities which offer high demand- engineering and management courses, that use their status as 'not for profit' bodies to siphon off profits.

Degree awarding power lies only with universities specified by the University Grants Commission (UGC) under Section 22 of the University Grant Commission Act 1956. This has resulted in a complex system of hundreds of "teaching colleges"-private or public affiliated with public universities. In order to increase target expansion rates, privately funded universities were allowed. They could only be approved by state acts, or by the central UGC authority. This status is very difficult to achieve. Most private colleges are thus forced to stick to the curriculum of the university it is affiliated with. This curriculum is often sub par.

Can the Central Government overcome these challenges by increasing it's allocation of funds to higher education? The IITs and IIMs that the government proposes to build, have a very limited capacity and can only cater to a limited section of the population. I believe that the government should do more to encourage private investment in higher educational organizations to cater to the massive demand.

High standards of transparency need to be instituted to ensure funds are appropriately used, and high quality is maintained.

Private universities are currently frustrated by their lack of ability to control the curriculum and courses they offer under the affiliate system. While regulation of the higher education sector is crucial in India, bigger opportunities of 'self-regulation' through the professionalization of the sector needs to be considered. What I mean by this, is that professional associations could serve to ensure mutually agreed-upon standards are met.

Finally, the government needs to acknowledge, and do more to address to ingrained inequity in access to higher education. This needs to be tackled at the primary school level. These are the changes required.

I do not believe that the government's current plan of slashing funds for the elementary education sector to build more IITs and IIMs will fully address the challenges listed above.

The Economics of Education

In his book, ‘The Economics of Education’, Daniele Checchi provides enrollment ratios in primary school education systems across the world. This indicator shows that post World War 2, an increase in school attendance is observed across the globe. By the start of the 1990s, many countries had succeeded in achieving 100% primary school enrollment rate. However, while OECD countries saw an almost complete saturation for secondary education as well, all the others were lagging behind.

Why is this so, given the clear benefits of education?

Evidence presented by Dr. Checchi indicates that labour market participation increases dramatically as people obtain more and more education. Interestingly, the book states that employment rates of university graduates are much the same across all countries: 90% for males, and 70% for females in most developed countries, as opposed to 70% of men and 40% of women in the case of less than compulsory education.

Why is labour participation more?

Education is seen to be positively correlated with earnings, with female profiles consistently below male ones.(It is interesting to note that there is little direct empirical evidence of direct productivity gains from more education. Daniele Checchi notes however, that any explanation of the above would preclude the very real barriers of accessing education)

If it is worth going to school, and there has been an increase in access to education across the globe, what prevents full access to education?

The sad truth is, the rise in educational attainment has not led to a proportionate decrease in inequality. Lots of people still do not have access to school. In addition, it is important to recognize the distinction between ownership and utility. Although primary education is compulsory in most parts of the world, statistics show that this does not directly translate to attaining competence in literacy abilities. And even though it is compulsory, economists have noted a negative correlation between female primary enrollment and family wealth, indicating that financial resources still preclude girls from attending school.

There have been more detailed analyses of the above question in the book: ‘The Economics of Education’. Opting to obtain more education has been seen as an investment question by some economists. The analogy between physical capital and human capital is imperfect as human capital cannot be resold, nor can it be collateralized. This means that the future benefits of acquiring education are conditional on events in the future, and the effort that must be exerted to obtain a job in the future. Thus, from this point of view this investment appears risky from the point of view of parents who have to make this choice.

In spite of this, ‘investment in human capital’ has become synonymous with the ‘acquisition of more education’. Human capital theory predicts that the demand for education will stabilize when the incremental benefits equal the incremental costs. Two factors have been identified to contribute to the costs, and thus the different levels of educational attainment: 1) Talent, 2) Family wealth which can constrain poor families when financial markets are imperfect

From an efficiency point of view, it is best to deploy more resources to the more talented students, however from an equity perspective this action would be wrong. However, if different levels of educational achievement were a result of income inequality then redistributive policies would increase both efficiency and equity. A further level of complexity in this analysis is added by studies that show a positive correlation between IQ scores and earnings, and between IQ scores across generations. If IQ is seen to be a proxy for ‘talent’, and if the gene of intelligence is supposed to be randomly distributed; then income inequality appears to be the ‘inevitable’ result. However, literature is still inconclusive about this point as many authors are against a causal interpretation.

If we examine the family wealth factor, we see that real financial markets typically ration borrowers by charging higher interest rates/require collateral in order to insure themselves against the risk of default. This makes it impossible for poor people to borrow money, and bear the opportunity cost of attending school. Thus poor individuals tend to acquire less education than rich individuals. Thus it has been argued that imperfect financial markets are responsible for inequality in education and income. This could lead to persistent inequality- poor families are unable to finance their children's education, who thus obtain less education, earn less and are thus unable to finance their children's education.

To summarize this, if children were heterogeneous in ability, more talented children will benefit more from schooling, thus stay longer in school and thus earn more money. However, when children are heterogeneous in family income, and financial markets are imperfect. children from poor families obtain less education because they face higher costs. These ‘elitest’ and ‘egalitarian’ views coexist.

Why have I written this article?

‘Fixing’ the education system is not easy. There are a multitude of factors at play. It is to be hoped that reading this article, some of the factors will become more clear, and more visible and can thus be tackled accordingly.

A Review of 'A Path Appears by Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn'

Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl WudDunn's, 'A Path Appears' is an empowering book. It tears through the cynicism and doubt of the power of an individual to make a difference, in a series of vignettes. Each vignette demonstrates how ordinary people, have had a tremendous impact on less fortunate people's lives, by giving. The key, the book notes, is to give wisely.

How does one give wisely? Kristof and WuDunn notes that one can get maximum bang for every buck donated, by supporting causes such as early childhood care. Young kids are "too young to fail" the book notes. An intervention at this stage in people's lives, will lead to a reduction in the number of dysfunctional adults, thus reducing social costs in the long run. Counselling pregnant teens is another ridiculously cost effective way of making a difference; so is spreading education about contraception. Kristoff and WuDunn note that it is possible to keep a child in school in Kenya for an extra year for $3.5 by investing in deworming programs.

What about other worthy causes? How does one assess the impact of an organization's approach? The book talks about the pioneering work of Esther Duflo, on evidence based social intervention, using a randomized trials method to verify the impact an organization is having. 'A Path Appears' justly brings to light the difficulty of using metrics such as the 'overheads' of an organization in judging the validity of its work. For example, empirically, organizations which spend money on a professional marketing and advertising campaign are able to raise more money than organizations which do not use funds for this purpose. In addition, organizations which have well paid highly skilled employees are able to accomplish more, and have a lower turn over rate than charities which do not invest in their staff.

It is perhaps because of reasons such as the above, that the NGO world is highly fragmented, with relatively few sustainable models. The book thus also stresses on the role the private sector has to pay in scaling up change. The private sector has the right skills, network and money to made a dent in the problems society is facing. Kristof and WuDunn provide several examples of how corporations, through corporate social responsibility initiatives, or through partnering with an NGO have developed sustainable change models.

Kristof and WuDunn note that such CSR initiatives has been criticized of having a hidden agenda- perhaps to cover ill deeds of a company in another space. This may well be true. However it is impossible to deny that the private sector will have a huge role to play in effecting social change.

The book goes on to note that the act of giving does a selfish aspect to it. Giving makes you feel good by increasing the amount of oxytocin in your body. It also raises one's 'prestige' in society In fact, the book goes on to say, giving could be one of the most selfish acts possible. Kristof and WuDunn end on an uplifting note however, when it acknowledges that compassion is integral to our humanity, and evolution has hardwired us to be kind through natural selection, the same wiring which also accounts for selfish behaviour.

It concludes by providing 6 steps a person can take, right now, immediately, to start giving. It provides a list of verified organizations which are doing great work- Givology is one of them!

It is impossible to read this book without feeling uncomfortable and uplifted at the same time. It is a call to arms which is loud, clear and compelling. I strongly encourage you to read this book. It is truly life changing

People with disabilities India

Inclusive Education in India
-Priyanka deSouza
During my term in Oxford, I have met many strong, interesting people. Two of them stand out for me in particular.
One is deaf. Although she is an adept lip reader, and has learned how to speak; the different accents in Oxford make understanding the people around her difficult. She relies on an interpreter during lectures to translate what is being said to sign language.

The other, has muscular dystrophy which has led to the weakening of her muscles, preventing her from walking. She navigates the cobbled streets of Oxford in a wheel chair, which is no mean feat! She has to contend with accessibility issues in a thousand year old university, where a great deal of effort is spent to ensure that nothing changes (very much).
Both girls are Rhode Scholars from the US and are extraordinary women.

Until I met these two women, I hadn't given the concept of 'disability' much thought. It was only after I got to know them, and really SAW them for themselves- bright, beautiful, kind girls that I realized how artificial the idea of 'disability' is, in many ways. 'Disability' arises from the lack of ability to perform an activity. If these two girls had existed in an environment which incorporated their needs, they wouldn't be 'disabled'. They'd be just fine.
Why had it taken me so long to think about this? The answer came to me in an awful realization. I had never personally known anyone in my immediate surroundings before who was disabled. How could this be?

I have lived my entire life in the city of Mumbai. I have gone to school, college and university there. Different reports have estimated that 4-6% of the population of India suffers from some form of disability. There is a great deal of debate about the definition of disability and its measurement, and therefore, this number varies. Why had I not studied with a deaf child, or a child with locomotor disabilities? Or, even if I had studied with someone who had a disability, without knowing they were disabled; why hadn't we created an environment for them to speak about this issue? In my opinion, the lack of visibility of people with disabilities has led to a dearth of discussion around this topic, resulting in it being ignored.

In developed countries, discussion about disability centres around independent living and improved services. In India the issue is one of survival. People with disabilities are stigmatized, and discriminated against by society. They are seen as helpless and dependent on the able members of the community. They are thus, in most cases, the poorest of the poor. Few have access to education, and thus to opportunities to improve their lives. The 58th round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) of India highlights this, by revealing that only 9% of the literate population of people with disabilities have had more than nine years of education. The literacy levels of disabled persons are much lower than that of the general population across all disability categories. Almost 75% of those with severe disabilities are illiterate, and even for those with mild disabilities, literacy rates are a mere 50%. The very idea of having a person with disabilities winning the Rhodes Scholarship in India is a distant dream.

How did this come to pass? Education for children with disabilities in India was initiated in the late 1800s with the establishment of special schools, such as those for the deaf in Bombay in 1883, and for the blind in Amritsar in 1887. Until the 1970s, special schools became the dominant means for the providing children with disabilities education. The separation of society into able members and disabled members was responsible for institutionalizing disability, pushing people with disabilities into the periphery of society. It was only in 1986, that The National Policy on Education in 1986 highlighted the need for equality in education. It stated that the "objective should be to integrate physically and mentally disabled people with the general community as equal partners, to prepare them for normal growth and to enable them to face life with courage and confidence." The Government gave teeth to this policy in the 1990s by integrating this objective in their 1992 Plan of Action. The 1992 Plan of Action said, that if children with disabilities could be taught in a general school, then they should only be taught in a general school and not a special school.

By the mid 1990s, the Government had kick started the District Primary Education Programme (DPEP) and its subcomponent the Integrated Education of the Disabled (IED). The main aim of this was to universalize primary education, while ensuring that children with disabilities were also part of the expansion. Following this, The Persons with Disabilities (Equal Opportunities, Protection of Rights and Full Participation) Act, 1995 came into force. It is the most important legislation in the history of special education in India, covering seven disabilities: blindness, low vision, impaired hearing, loco motor impaired, mental retardation, leprosy cured and mental illness. An important stipulations of the Act is ensuring that every child with a disability has access to free education in an appropriate environment, until he/she is 18 years of age. It promotes the integration of students with disabilities in general schools, and the creation of special schools for those in need of special education. Finally, it endeavours to equip special schools for children with disabilities with vocational training facilities. This is important, as many organizations do not provide accessible environments for persons with disabilities to participate in, and thus people with disabilities find it hard to find jobs.

At the moment, governmental statistics reveal that the overwhelming majority of children with disabilities attend regular school rather than special school. This means that the choice faced by most children with disabilities is between attending a regular school and not going to school at all. Thus the government has to do its best to go on promoting an inclusive education system, with schools that do their best to integrate the needs of children with disabilities into their core curriculum.

What is holding India back?

People (including school personnel) are unaware of the fairly recent Persons with Disabilities Act described above. They are also unaware of the funding available for children with disabilities in general schools. Attempts to disseminate this knowledge by State Governments have been limited. A focused campaign to spread awareness is needed.
School personnel are not trained to implement or design educational programs for students with disabilities in regular school. Universities that train teachers fail to provide them with proper training. This has to change. The lack of teachers/infrastructure and poverty mentioned above, are acute manifestations of broader challenges to the education system of India.

Societal perception of persons with disabilities, as mentioned before, is another huge barrier in India. Persons with disabilities are looked down on and are treated as outcasts. It is to be hoped that this attitude will be dispelled over time by continued advocacy and campaigning.

In the last decade, The United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPD) has been a major catalyst in changing the perception of disabled peopled from objects of charity, to full and equal members of society, enjoying the same fundamental rights, on the international front. The Convention made a paradigm shift from the 'incompetence law' of disability to the socially empowering, 'universal capacity model'. Some of the most celebrated stipulations of the Convention were the concepts of: 'Reasonable Accommodation (1) and 'Universal Design (2) to make society as inclusive as possible; and the Right to Inclusive Education.

The Government of India was one of the first to ratify the UNCRPD, fully and without reservation seven years ago. However, it has been criticized for doing little to follow through on its commitment. The recent Rights of Persons with Disability Bill introduced in the Rajya Sabha (Upper House of the Indian Parliament) in Feb 2014 has been described as 'anachronistic welfarist' legislation. It promises to seek to increase reservation for disabled persons in public sector jobs from 3% to 5% and reserve seats for them in higher educational institutes. This kind of legislation propagates the existing perception of disabled people. It is also meaningless, if not accompanied by a complete overhaul of the current system. For example, all IITs have seats reserved for people with disabilities. However, IIT does not offer its entrance examination in braille. In 2013, a blind student, who had scored 95% in his CBSE board was denied writing JEE. Thus without creating the right accessible environment, increasing the number of seats for people with disabilities will not lead to their empowerment. It is to be hoped that more progressive legislation will arise from current deliberations.

1) "Reasonable accommodation" means necessary and appropriate modification and adjustments not imposing a disproportionate or undue burden, where needed in a particular case, to ensure to persons with disabilities the enjoyment or exercise on an equal basis with others of all human rights and fundamental freedoms;
2) "Universal design" means the design of products, environments, programmes and services to be usable by all people, to the greatest extent possible, without the need for adaptation or specialized design. “Universal design” shall not exclude assistive devices for particular groups of persons with disabilities where this is needed.

Early Childhood Care in India

UNESCO defines 'early childhood' as the first eight years of a child's life. This period is characterized by tremendous brain development. Research has shown that early childhood care and education are very important in laying a foundation for future learning and growth. The following graph shows the growth gap of children who do not receive early childhood education. (source: Hult Challenge of 2015)

Professor David Johnson in his talk at Oxford University on November 6th, 2014 provided concrete examples of studies that exemplified the benefits of Early Childhood Education (ECE):
1) Improved health of children who received ECE in Brazil
2) Increased intelligence of children in Jamaica, Columbia, Peru and Turkey who received ECE
3) Higher enrollment in school of kids who received ECE in Columbia
4) Less grade repetition of kids who received ECE in Brazil and Argentina

Organizations such as the World Bank, UNICEF and UNESCO are heavily invested in developing Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE)/Early Childhood Education (ECE)/ Early Childhood Development (ECD) schemes around the globe.

What is the current state of children below the age of 6 in India?

63 infants of every 1000 born alive die before the age of one in India (ref: UNICEF). The under-five mortality rate in India is 93. This high rate of infant mortality is closely related to the high rate of maternal deaths: 540 deaths per 100,000 live births. This is because few women have access to skilled birth attendants, and to quality and emergency obstetric care. Skilled attendants handle fewer than half of all deliveries.

Childhood illnesses pose a serious threat to infants that do survive these odds. One in three children do not get a full course of DPT(diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus immunization). More than two million children are known to die every year from preventable infections (including measles and tetanus).

Compounding this, is the problem of malnutrition, which severely impedes growth. One in every three of the world's malnourished children live in India. 50% of all childhood deaths in India are attributed to malnutrition. Although the major reason for malnutrition is inadequate food intake, the availability and access to health services, the access to healthcare for children and pregnant women, the quality of that care (are hygienic practices being followed) are important factors as well (ref: UNICEF).

Due to their lower social status, girls are at a much higher risk of malnutrition than boys of the same age. Up to one third of all adult women in India are underweight, partly because of this cultural bias. Inadequate care of these women, especially during pregnancy leads them in turn to deliver underweight babies who are vulnerable to further malnutrition and disease, causing a vicious cycle to develop.

The following image has been taken from the Slum Census of India, 2011. All the problems described above are acutely present in urban slums. The table shows the abysmal sex ratios that exist (~920 females/1000 males). This is highly problematic.

What has the government done?

The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) in India is the world's largest integrated early childhood programs, with over 40,000 centers around the country. Started in 1975, with financial and technical assistance from UNICEF and the World Bank, the program has the dual aim to improve the health and nutritional status of children between 0 and 6 years of age, laying the foundation for their future development; as well as to help mothers look after the nutritional and health needs of their children.

The Integrated Child Development Services has developed a package of services to achieve its ambitious goal, as the outcome of one service depends on the outcomes of the others. The services offered are health, nutrition and hygiene education to mothers, non-formal preschool education to children aged three to six, supplementary feeding for all children, pregnant and nursing mother, growth monitoring and promotion, and links to primary health care services such as immunization and vitamin A supplements. This comprehensive scheme replaced the Balwadi Nutrition scheme that had been started by the government in the 'to provide food supplements to children of the age group 3 to 6 years in rural areas.

The platform of delivery of all the services of ICSD are the 'Anganwadi Centers (AWC)' (loosely translates to village courtyard). Each center is run by an anganwadi worker and one helper, who undergo three months of institutional training and, four months of community based training.

AWCs have been set up in every village in India (~1.4 million in total). Today the program covers 4.8 million expectant and nursing mother and over 23 million children under the age of six. Of these children, more than half participate in early learning activities. A number of evaluation studies of ICDS have been conducted. Broadly, community leaders were positive about the functioning of the AWCS (>80% in all states) while >70% found the program to be beneficial to the community.

What are the challenges of the scheme?

Although the ICDS policy is excellent on paper, it suffers from several implementation challenges. Professor David Johnson in his talk at Oxford, said that one of the biggest issues is maintaining a minimum quality standard in the centers. Centers are dark, housing too many children. The National Council of Applied Economic Research 2005 survey data reveals that >45% anganwadis have no toilet facilities. An appraisal conducted by the NIPCCD in 2006 revealed that 59% of the AWCs studied had no toilet facility. The appraisals also noticed breaching of procedure at the centers. For example, 36.5% of the mothers at the centers did not report weighing of new born children.

One factor that could be responsible for this, is the inadequate training of the anganwadi workers(AWWs) and their helpers. Although 84% of the AWWs are reported to have received pre-service training, in-service training has largely been neglected. One in every two AWWs in the country have been educated at least up to the matriculate level in the country. Due to this limitation, AWWs may not appreciate the importance of continuously engaging with the children and facilitating their development. Compound this, with the fact that workers are paid a pitifully low wage (Recently the government increased their wages by an honorarium of Rs 500 over their previous wage of Rs 938- Rs 1068/month) and have very little incentive to do their job well.

In addition due to the inefficient streaming of funds from various State governments, many AWCs reported forced disruption to the services due to the lack of availability of supplementary nutrition and teaching pack materials. The AWCs employ play based learning techniques. Each AWC is supposed to be provided with a kit costing Rs 1000 that contains items such as building blocks, balls etc that are supposed to facilitate this kind of learning. The government has recently tried to redistribute funding, with more onus now being on national cash flows, rather than state cashflows in order to ensure a reliable supply of such material.

Finally, on an average 66% of eligible childre and 75% of eligible women were registered at the AWCs. The participation of beneficiary women and girls has been low. This inequality needs to be addressed in order to achieve true development in this sphere